Northern Rail
Operated by a mix of Serco and Abellio currently and this will not continue. Abellio have been shortlisted to run this on their own and you would imagine the existing brand will continue. Other shortlisted companies are Govia and DB's Arriva, the latter of course ran Arriva Trains Northern before Northern Rail took over back in late 2004.
No announcements have been made as to the winner, but I'm going to go for Arriva as the preferred bidder here. This is not based on anything other than a feeling in my water.
TransPennine
Created in 2004 officially, although as a brand this has existed pre-privatisation of course, FirstGroup with Keolis (55/45 split) have ran the franchise and developed it into one of the busiest routes on the network. New Class 185 trains were introduced in 2007 and supplemented with Class 170s and later Class 350s for their Edinburgh services.
The new franchise holder will be one of these three, FirstGroup who will go on their own with Keolis moving to share a bid with Go-Ahead. The third being Stagecoach who if successful will be a major player in the north with 51% of Virgin Trains West Coast, 90% of Virgin Trains East Coast, and 100% of East Midlands Trains.
The problem for TransPennine is the forthcoming electrification and also the issue that most trains are as full as a train in India. Rumours are apace that Class 442 units (affectionately known as 'plastic pigs') coupled to a DRS Class 68 will provide much needed capacity and allow Class 185s to run in six and nine-car formations.
Much more about what the winning bidders will offer will be available shortly, but in essence the Northern franchise will centre around losing the much hated Pacer trains (I don't particularly mind them but I do like Leyland Nationals anyway!) and for TransPennine to manage the overcrowding they face, the forthcoming electrification and presumably new trains to go with that.
One industry insider has suggested a take on what is happening with the old D-stock (the old London Underground District line trains which are being retired) and that's to turn them into low-cost diesel trains with a refurbishment and that is to turn the Class 142s into Leyland Nationals! I'm sure everyone will love that idea!
And as for the winner of TransPennine? My money is FirstGroup winning this franchise. Although not perfect and I suspect Keolis have been the sleepy 45% of this arrangement, I think that out of the three, First have the ability and knowledge to drive this forward.
Who knows!
